Dave Caruso's Before the Bell

Before the Bell 10/09/2008

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Play from 0:19[0:19] ..." further reducing some of the the -- there were taken -- the Asian markets are receiving well Europe is up this morning so. Little sigh of relief -- Europe where it is where we'd be doing"...

Play from 2:01[2:01] ..." of the market's post World War II. And I didn't say a bear market that 20% versus let's just a little bit deeper let's talk about 50% corrections. In those things that's happened about eighteen times."...

Play from 3:23[3:23] ..." a little bit of good news there in on the earnings front IBM was pretty good but that retailers are still having some problems."...

Play from 3:29[3:29] ..." David Caruso thank you so much and."...

Play from 0:00[0:00]" Time for our before the bell stock report. ABC financial editor Dave Crusoe is here this morning good morning David according to abrupt and it looks like -- look -- stability coming back to the market."

Play from 0:10[0:10]" Yeah and I could feel a little -- that they have a little less eight days or so it's been tougher of the markers -- down almost 20% over that period of time so we've we've got some global cooperation yesterday and that further reducing some of the the -- there were taken -- the Asian markets are receiving well Europe is up this morning so. Little sigh of relief -- Europe where it is where we'd be doing the right things unfortunately still have a ways to go but. It's it's like it's because we see some type of -- addition of cooperation in the world like markets so. It police the world -- working this thing out and I think our mutual dependency on each other is actually hoping in this process so. The good news is good long term that we're mutually dependent economically book with trade in mind the -- news is that it takes time to get these things started in the stresses that he's a little bit today. You know maybe we can exhale for one day but. There's a lot of -- the worst over the face and and one of them is what's happened today without stopping -- ban. With the SEC can it's just can't do that for the people who were betting the market -- doubt so will sit stay come back and play this morning. Also -- the possibility in the US -- what they keep ticket ownership stakes in banks to not only that. That the troubled ones but maybe even help -- once the secretary Paulson talked about yesterday afternoon and unfortunately that's the markets were down only restarted -- Welcome to try to do is figure does is this about -- the third as a socialist system so. Would they do return -- things -- society it's. And I disputed -- 150 points this morning except 48 or just about flat at ninety dollars and the worry metal gold is down so that's also little relief it's been about fifty they have dollars."

Play from 1:41[1:41]" We -- a little anniversary today a year ago today the market hit its highest point ever."

Play from 1:45[1:45]" Yeah UK can use an unhappy particular. It will kill this this -- aspect overnight as when we did it and insensitive to do that about 35% so. I think folks have been asked -- but they think they put into perspective as we look at their markets -- are actually -- to all of the market's post World War II. And I didn't say a bear market that 20% versus let's just a little bit deeper let's talk about 50% corrections. In those things that's happened about eighteen times. The shortest was one month in 1980. The longest beer market if you -- more than 50% decline is that was thirty months between 2002002. The median -- was only about seven months so maybe if we're past the average that we're doing okay but the absolute worst output in nineteen -- presented for. They were -- 48%. In between 2002002. Which most of us remember. That was down 47% to would you look at this even if we're looking at the worst. We're really not far off of that so hopefully that we could see this -- come back. Hopefully the markets look at bottom I think the greatest news about this is if you look at every one of those bombs. One year later to see what happens when they came out the immediate returns were 33% in the bad it was 68%. The lowest -- 4% to buy and hold work. I think that's a little bit of it indicated that if he -- out now put your money into percent. Securities for the next year and the markets go up. It's trying to -- a long long long time to catch up so I think that's what we're saying that to try to put this in a little bit of an historic perspective that's only numbers but. Maybe you can put about -- would -- of people get."

Play from 3:17[3:17]" Speaking of numbers quick -- on the weekly jobs data."

Play from 3:20[3:20]" Looks like -- about this -- actually twenty that it took us a little bit of good news there in on the earnings front IBM was pretty good but that retailers are still having some problems."

Play from 3:29[3:29]" David Caruso thank you so much and."

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[0:47]..." were down -- A lot of that didn't that they keep from oil prices being down -- they felt pretty good about these the economic numbers there at the empire index which is new York's Persian about manufacturing that was also pretty good. Although what god they came out those housing numbers they're awful you know new construction is about 50%. Permits Serb the lowest they've been seven years although I have to say the stocks the bill would start holding up pretty well but you know the market doesn't seem to care about what's going to have a housing market -- up so. And we got a few more months that the finish up the -- another good week for the markets. "...

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[0:16]..." the -- it was kind of expected as we should be a GDP for the third quarter. Downed pretense of -- percent the real surprise here though is that that's good news because. The experts were actually expecting about a half a percentage reduction in the GDP so. Even though yesterday we kind of had a seat late selloff in the markets just markets are kind of worried that isn't. And some rumors about GD the markets are up big triple -- this morning despite the fact that and that number there was some big -- and consumer spending so let me say professor teacher mechanic put this in professional. A longer term -- that -- professor -- Since World War II we've had an official recessions and the national bureau of research. Those -- the guys that make the rules generally it's assumed that if you have two quarters of negative GDP. Then we're going to have a recession and it certainly feels like the eleventh so. On average we've had about five and "...

[0:04]..." so good morning David good morning. And we got those GDP numbers the question is is that a recession yet officially. "...

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