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[0:02] ..." science of the economy metrics and has been for decades doctor Allen Sinai the chief economist of decision economics in Lexington -- WBZ to talk about. His forecast for the future are you optimistic given"...
[1:56] ..." we are -- to get help on the fiscal side. Government spending increases in tax cuts. And so those operate with blacks. We should see. A better economy from wherever we go better economy"...
[2:25] ..." entries in its. Balance sheet. Has expanded its loan investments and the Federal Reserve is not only the lender of last resort for thanks. And non bank when it is now under last resort for. Borrowers."...
[3:40] ..." What those two companies underage. Four. Our bankers who actually make the mortgage loans to us that are conforming mortgage and so. When I go get a mortgage loan and a bank. Give me alone -- steps to theaters. -- then. Has -- loan insured by an injured teammate who. Alone from the bank and put it in his portfolio in the Federal Reserve is going to cry. In the engine today. What they have. Supported in the mortgage market it supports mortgage -- another part"...
[4:34] ..." doing 200 billion. Two private lenders. Who lend to students. Consumers. Business. Auto loans. And and the Federal Reserve is going to do -- that government money. Is going to. Purchase from the private lenders. Those loans. And take it -- it's the owners -- balance sheet. And that's going to increase the lending. -- goes on in the private sector Tuesday beleaguered students and auto loans. Kinds -- that isn't going on now it is complicated a lot of financial. Techniques. But it but -- end up as the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented way since the banks are lending. Federal Reserve is lending in one way -- the other directly into the private sector and not operating. Just through the banking system and"...
[7:31] ..." Doctor Allen Sinai chief economist at decision economics. Thank you very much outside her."...
[0:00]" He is one of the best known exports in the science of the economy metrics and has been for decades doctor Allen Sinai the chief economist of decision economics in Lexington -- WBZ to talk about. His forecast for the future are you optimistic given all the bad news we've had an all the taxpayer money this on the committed."
[0:22]" These. Economy that is an economy's going to be very bad for another three to five months are very cryptic and jobs front. It's can be another matter we giving -- a stimulus -- and economy and a new round of fiscal stimulus after the turn of the year from the new administration. So. Summer rays of sunshine. Early. -- sunshine early mornings and China. But later 92 and -- the economy will be picking up but I can't trigger Turkey nastiness of the economic news today's news and news on the economy and -- world economy over the next readers exports will be --"
[1:08]" His partner. Miserably worse than it is now."
[1:12]" the economy sure the unemployment rate which is right now 60% could Welby. 8% by the middle of next year in the job losses. Probably will be -- What we call nonfarm payroll basis about 3000 monthly rate we're going through a very. Sharp downturn in consumer spending Americans sir are getting very cautious and spreading understanding to save more. And businesses -- cutting back. Abruptly very sharply. Preparing for -- here 2009. But even as it happens in Washington. Where it. Right now that would would look and sure footed -- We're going to get help we are -- to get help on the fiscal side. Government spending increases in tax cuts. And so those operate with blacks. We should see. A better economy from wherever we go better economy leaders 2009 and certainly in terms as."
[2:16]" That's a fiscal -- but the monetary side of there was always money coming from the new government printing presses."
[2:21]" That's exactly right literally the reservists pretty money its bookkeeping entries in its. Balance sheet. Has expanded its loan investments and the Federal Reserve is not only the lender of last resort for thanks. And non bank when it is now under last resort for. Borrowers. Consumers small business student loans. Lender of last resort landing directly into the private sector economy. The bank -- are doing it somebody somebody or some idiot to do -- reserve is doing it it's a precedent and anarchist."
[2:58]" To explain if you if you would in terms it -- those of us who don't really comprehend of this stuff and in Anderson. What it was at the faded yesterday in committing to buy a some underperforming assets of Fannie and Freddie did they actually put out. You know and half a trillion dollars or to be put out lesson that and they've sure leverage at the way hedge funds do."
[3:20]" 500 billion dollars of purchases. Mortgage backed securities from. Those who insurance experiments and injured. They haven't spent their money but they're going to spend up to -- mount. Invite from these two. Companies. What those two companies underage. Four. Our bankers who actually make the mortgage loans to us that are conforming mortgage and so. When I go get a mortgage loan and a bank. Give me alone -- steps to theaters. -- then. Has -- loan insured by an injured teammate who. Alone from the bank and put it in his portfolio in the Federal Reserve is going to cry. In the engine today. What they have. Supported in the mortgage market it supports mortgage -- another part of it is that there are reserved going to get twenty billion dollars of taxpayer money. I'm what's called the -- programs can be from the treasury. Legislated by congress in October 20 billion dollars. And -- what do you -- leverage ratio going to lend ten times up to ten times -- twenty doing 200 billion. Two private lenders. Who lend to students. Consumers. Business. Auto loans. And and the Federal Reserve is going to do -- that government money. Is going to. Purchase from the private lenders. Those loans. And take it -- it's the owners -- balance sheet. And that's going to increase the lending. -- goes on in the private sector Tuesday beleaguered students and auto loans. Kinds -- that isn't going on now it is complicated a lot of financial. Techniques. But it but -- end up as the Federal Reserve in an unprecedented way since the banks are lending. Federal Reserve is lending in one way -- the other directly into the private sector and not operating. Just through the banking system and it just doesn't want to put money out as it is still under pressures -- hold some money."
[5:40]" So but the bottom line is well most of us were dozing the year 700. Billion plus pretty much doubled in the in a day."
[5:50]" Are. In terms of the centers are -- out into a gun in terms of the center billion dollars. That the country -- Permitted the treasury. To tip into British taxpayer money. It's stated before the first -- quarter billion dollars. And they have just about used. -- have come back and get permission. Or another 350 billion dollars so the trick is not used up. That's Federer billion dollars yet. It probably before w.'s adopt an -- reserve may well put out. I just don't -- billion -- to trillion and have dollars. Ultimately. Ultimately. It is one -- the other it is potentially taxpayer. Money."
[6:37]" Makes -- the sells -- for the times -- generational whatever direction used to say billion here billion there pretty soon you're talking serious money."
[6:44]" It's it's your money talking trillions to rescind its particularly its much bigger country -- used to be but the size of all this. As a percent of our economy and the deficits around. Larry government's fiscal side are going to be astronomical numbers. Lira down the road after we get recovery hope we -- remember I'm talking about real recovery in 2000 that. Really in the next 345 much I don't want. Hold on any illusions to a lot of people who frankly right now losing jobs that civil matter right now it's easy job. What's going that is setting the stage for recovery. Later on and then assuming we get here and we will there and the next stage going to have to be outcome we grapple with those big deficit."
[7:31]" Doctor Allen Sinai chief economist at decision economics. Thank you very much outside her."
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