Retails Metrics says most discount retailers did better in May

[0:00]" Ken Perkins at retail metrics and it can looking at some of these reports these sales reports from may. Same store sales what do you see developing here."

[0:10]" It would -- an ongoing continuation of the trend that we not begin to develop. In the second half of last year we're consumers are trading down in the lower price point we're valuing it to retailers like the warehouse clubs like Wal-Mart. Like coming off price apparel retailers TJX and and pop stores in. That trend it's particularly begun to pick up cases we've seen in the spiking gas prices throughout the first quarter the maker."

[0:37]" Do you see any impact from the tax rebates in these figures."

[0:42]" They're definitely was some some impact wouldn't it very difficult to quantify however could very few retailers made much commentary in the indicated that they gave about -- about 350 million dollars worth of rebate checks and indicated -- was some -- from rebate stimulus. Payments it's difficult to gauge but it looks like the consumers did take the lion's share of that now only the discount to sponsor of that."

[1:08]" Icy -- now overall -- retailers are reporting what about a two point 8% store or comparable store sales gains. We haven't seen something like that for awhile have --"

[1:21]" talked about a month we've seen that but we need to it'd been trending below 2% from the fourth the back half a last year into the first half of this here. And you we can't the likely to have calendars yet -- little over 3% gain last month in April because the Easter holiday -- We also missing if you point 8% -- this month we would caution however that a large part of that increase was deemed that it won't work beat expectations but such a wide margin in the month if you stack you know. The disproportionate impact that they have on retail sales he became with only one point 6% for a retail metrics and herself in Mexico. It's not quite as rosy it would look we backed them."

[2:02]" Looking at the other side of the coin -- retailers are still having trouble in the market."

[2:06]" Sure and it and it because its and it -- discretionary space whereas you know they're relying on consumers having access incomes left to spend it has really been struggling you know if you look at the the department stores. Across the board they're showing weakness there you know whether it's made here more discount oriented -- department store chains like JC Penney her cold. A little bit more upscale like Macy's. Even Saks fifth avenue had -- almost 9% comp sales increase here's they're. Clearly feeling the pinch here from consumers less discretionary income and then you look at the specialty apparel retailers to. Well that was the gap hadn't huge declines on the limited was down about 6% Chico's FAS. They were down about 16% very tough sledding in those those spaces."

[2:56]" For all when you look at these trends do you see an overall positive outlook going forward here or. Still a lot of uncertainty."

[3:05]" I think you see a lot of uncertainty going forward the stimulus checks will continue to flow through the end of this month. And certainly helped in the boost them much needed this teaching constant ourselves from the retailers. But you know when you when -- need this stimulus is over it's very difficult he -- the additional spending is going to come from home equity piggy bank is pretty much been tapped out consumers are carrying significant amount. The credit card and other consumer debt which prevents them from spending at a higher rate. And the job market you know it is very uncertain right now known that there we have four consecutive month of job losses. Tomorrow's employment report remains in -- number whether it's you know there may be in modest gains -- climbed. And late flight to their consumer confidence is very low at this point"